Good afternoon. Welcome to the fall session of Bond Capital Private Credit News.
I’m sure you’re all wondering what the cost of debt is looking like this coming fall, and I’ve got a few comments on that. But before I get to that information, I’d just like to talk about the size of the market.
What we’ve seen over the years is changing sands as more or less bank loans have happened, more or less high-yield loans have happened, and then, more recently, more or less private credit has happened. Today we see about a third, a third, and a third of the marketplace being private credit, one-third; bank loans, one-third; and high-yield, one-third. The cost of capital today, the prime rate, is roughly 7.2 percent, which means small businesses can expect loans probably in anywhere between 6 and 10 percent depending on your covenant. We would see a junior market probably emerging between 13 and 16 percent, and that’s what happens when rates go up as much as they have in the past 12 months.
So here we are stress testing, probably 8 percent in your bullish case if you’ve got a lot of growth going on in your business and positive events, 11 percent perhaps for the mid-case, and as much as 14 percent if you’re concerned or bearish and looking at a down case.
Be careful, manage your leverage, and as always, if you’ve got questions, feel free to communicate with Bond Capital.
Thank you. I’m Davis Vaitkunas, and that’s today’s update.